As the number of unicorns, those private companies valued at a billion dollars or more, has moved from a handful to a herd in Silicon Valley, many are left wondering just how arbitrary valuations have become. For founders in search of their next round of funding, trying to determine your company’s true market value in this new landscape is not only daunting, but can also be risky.
Just as the best sales people sell what their customers want to buy, the savviest entrepreneurs present their businesses with an understanding of how investors calculate value. As an entrepreneur, you need two things: revenue projection for your company and the desired return profile of the investor you’re pitching. The rest we can calculate using data from the past decade of public company valuations. These valuations are the benchmark most investors use.
The 5x Revenue Multiple
While there are many approaches to valuing a SaaS business, the most common is using a revenue multiple. We calculate the revenue multiple of a public company by multiplying the most recent quarterly revenue by four and dividing that number into the enterprise value.
Using our own Scale SaaS Index, we identified the revenue multiple for all SaaS companies from 2004 to 2015, then plotted the median multiples over time.
The data reveals a consistent valuation range between 4x and 6x revenue, with 5x revenue as the all-time median. Times of euphoria, such as late 2013 through early 2014, and periods of depression, such as late 2008 through late 2010, are also easy to identify.
Market cycles and company valuations will fluctuate, but we have over a decade of trading data on more than 50 companies that suggests a steady-state valuation of 4x to 6x revenue for the median public SaaS company. We believe most investors have internalized a 5x multiple as a benchmark for a steady-state SaaS company.
It is interesting to look at individual companies in the index and see if this rule of thumb applies to every company. Salesforce, the largest SaaS company in the world, trades at 7x today. It traded as low as 2x in late 2008 and up to 10x before settling where it is today, noticeably following the cycles of the index. In other words, while it may get a slight premium for its leadership position it still fits into the framework. So why do some companies trade at a premium to the index?
The 30 Percent Growth Rate
Companies get premium trading multiples for factors like market opportunity, competitive dynamic, management team, or a particularly unique product. Investors often quantify those factors by looking at a company’s growth rate; success in any of those areas should accelerate the addition of new revenue.
We look
via techcrunch.com
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